When the Uncertainty Is Bigger Than the Shock: Scenario Modelling for English Local Elections
中文摘要
通过场景建模分析英国地方选举中不确定性的影响
English Summary
This case study explores how scenario modeling handles high uncertainty in English local elections, arguing that models are often most valuable when they decline to provide specific forecasts.
Original Excerpt
A scenario analysis case study on calibrated uncertainty, historical error, and why some models are most useful when they refuse to forecast. The post When the Uncertainty Is Bigger Than the Shock: Scenario Modelling for English Local Elections appeared first on Towards Data Science.